What is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) worth?

Kinross Gold (KGC) is a ~2 Moz/year gold producer with mines in the US, Brazil, Chile, Canada and Mauritania. The investment picture is dominated by one variable — the gold price — which is near record levels and is generating exceptional cash flow: TTM FCF ~$3.0B, EBITDA ~$5.1B, net margin ~36%, ROE ~35%. Management has used the windfall well: debt cut from $2.6B (2022) to net cash of ~$1.0B, a growing dividend, and a 2026 target to return 40% of attributable FCF through buybacks.

At $23.89 the stock trades at ~5.4x EV/EBITDA and ~7.5x forward P/E. That looks cheap, but gold miners deserve sub-market multiples because peak-cycle cash flows are not annuities and reserves deplete. Valuing Kinross on through-cycle normalized cash flow gives a fair value near $27.50 — a modest ~15% discount to fair value. I view KGC as modestly undervalued with an asymmetry skewed to the gold price: a bull case (gold sustained above $3,700) supports high-$30s, a bear case (gold back toward $2,600) drags the business toward ~$19.

DCF on normalized FCF + EV/EBITDA and P/E peer comps, cross-checked with gold-price scenarios

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.