What is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) worth?

Applied Digital has completed a pivot from crypto/blockchain hosting into a purpose-built HPC/AI data-center developer and landlord. The story is now almost entirely about one thing: converting a ~$36.2B, ~1,410 MW contracted lease backlog — anchored by CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers on ~15-year, take-or-pay leases across five campuses — into stabilized cash flow by roughly 2028-29. As of the FY2026 10-K (period ended May 31, 2026), only ~100 MW was actually operating and revenue-generating; the rest is under construction or contracted-but-undelivered. FY2026 revenue was ~$611M (SEC as-reported, up from ~$228M in FY2025) but the company remains deeply loss-making (operating loss ~$236M, EPS -$0.91) and free cash flow is sharply negative as capex runs into the billions.

This is a platform/optionality situation, not a clean earnings compounder, so I frame a distribution rather than a single tight number. On stabilized 2029 economics my base case is a fair value near $27/share; the probability-weighted expected value across bear ($8), base ($27) and bull ($48) is roughly $27. The stock trades at a modest premium to that estimate. The counterintuitive point: on stabilized numbers the current enterprise value looks cheap versus data-center REIT peers (~8.6x stabilized EBITDA vs 20-25x for DLR/EQIX) — but that headline ignores the ~$4-5B of additional capital, rising net debt (toward ~$8B) and share dilution (toward ~380M) required to get there. Net those in and the backlog is worth roughly where the shares sit. You are being asked to underwrite flawless, fully-financed, on-time execution of a multi-billion-dollar build with meaningful single-tenant concentration.

Probability-weighted stabilized EV/EBITDA (2029) discounted to present, cross-checked vs implied multiples on the contracted lease backlog

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.