What is Edge Copper Corporation (EDCU.V) worth?

Edge Copper (EDCU.V, formerly Plata Latina Minerals) is a pre-revenue, single-asset copper developer whose entire value is the Zonia oxide heap-leach SX-EW project in Arizona. A March 2026 PEA pegs after-tax NPV8 at US$488M ($4.64/lb copper), rising to US$1.1B at ~$6/lb spot, on US$524.5M initial capex, a 10-year life and 784M lb of cathode. There are no meaningful operating earnings — the reported trailing P/E (~9x) and positive 2025 EPS are artifacts of a one-off gain-on-sale of property and FX swings, not the business. The right lens is risk-adjusted NAV.

My base-case NAV is C$0.57/share and my probability-weighted fair value is about C$0.63, on the current ~199M fully-diluted share count. That sits modestly above the market price, so the stock screens as somewhat cheap on base-case NAV — but this is a genuinely wide distribution (bear C$0.34, bull C$1.45), and the discount is not a free lunch: it compensates for a financing gap where a ~C$77M company must somehow fund ~US$524M of capex. That gap, more than copper price, is why PEA-stage juniors like this trade at ~0.10-0.15x NAV.

The uploaded iCR report's C$1.40 'target' requires stacking ~0.25x P/NAV, ~$6/lb copper and confirmed +25-50% resource growth simultaneously — a bull outcome, not a central estimate. I view the shares as inexpensive relative to base-case NAV but high-risk and event-dependent; the Q4-2026 resource update and mid-2027 PFS are the swing factors.

Risked project NAV (PEA NPV8 × P/NAV) + net cash − corporate G&A, probability-weighted across copper-price / resource / re-rating scenarios

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.