What is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) worth?

Moderna is no longer a COVID cash machine. It is a clinical-stage, option-driven biotech burning roughly $2 billion a year while trying to convert a world-class mRNA platform into a durable, diversified franchise. Revenue has fallen from about $18.9 billion (2022) to about $1.9 billion (2025) and is still declining; the company is deeply unprofitable (2025 net loss of roughly $2.8 billion, with negative gross margin in some quarters), and free cash flow is firmly negative. That makes a cash-flow-based DCF meaningless: nearly all the value sits in optionality — the respiratory franchise (Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, the new mCOMBRIAX combination vaccine, and the pending flu vaccine mRNA-1010) and, most importantly, the oncology pipeline anchored by intismeran (mRNA-4157) in a 50/50 collaboration with Merck.

Under a probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts approach — net cash, risk-adjusted respiratory franchise, risk-adjusted oncology, earlier-stage pipeline, less corporate overhead — base-case enterprise value is roughly $88 per share (this version raises the oncology weight to 90% to reflect Phase 3 de-risking), with a scenario-weighted expected value of about $89 per share. This is still well below the current market price and below most sell-side marks (now clustered at Hold, with a median target in the low $80s). The shares still carry a premium to fair value: the current EV implies roughly 20x EV/revenue on generous 2027E revenue, already pricing in broad oncology success plus a respiratory rebound. Both could happen, but together they remain our bull case. We still view Moderna as overvalued, though less so than in the prior version; the outcome range is wide and genuinely bimodal, so we keep low confidence in any single point estimate.

Probability-weighted SOTP / rNPV with reverse-multiple cross-check

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.