What is Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) worth?

Centrus Energy (LEU) — roughly fairly valued at ~$155; fair value ~$152, with an unusually wide range. Centrus is two things bolted together: (1) a small, genuinely profitable nuclear-fuel business that trades and enriches low-enriched uranium (SWU) for utilities, sitting on ~$690M of net cash; and (2) a call option on the United States rebuilding domestic uranium-enrichment capacity, anchored by DOE's HALEU and LEU production contracts — most recently a $900M firm-fixed-price deal (signed 30 June 2026) to stand up commercial HALEU capacity at Piketon, Ohio.

The hard, valuable part — core operations plus net cash — is worth only ~$74/share. Everything above that (~half the $3.05bn market cap) is the enrichment-expansion story. My probability-weighted SOTP lands at ~$151/share and my scenario expected value at ~$152 — essentially on top of the market. So the stock isn't obviously cheap or expensive; it's a fairly-priced bet on execution, with a bear case near $72 and a bull case near $250.

This is not a valuation to hold with false precision. The right way to own LEU is as a policy-and-execution option: the Russian import ban and U.S. reshoring drive are real tailwinds, but the commercial enrichment build-out is years away, capital-intensive, appropriations-dependent, and dilutive. Confidence in the point estimate is deliberately low; the distribution is the message.

Probability-weighted SOTP (core DCF + net cash + enrichment-expansion option), cross-checked with reverse DCF / implied multiple

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.