Verdict
Overvalued
What is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) worth?
Currently $970.82 — 107% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Cyclical
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $1.1T
As of 2026-07-15, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $470.00 versus a current price of $970.82 — a 107% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Micron (MU) is currently trading at $983.12 (as of 2026-07-15), with a market cap of ~$1.11 trillion. Our fair value is ~$470/share, representing a significant premium to the current price — based on mid-cycle normalized earnings, the stock has already priced in the peak profit margins of the current AI/HBM super-cycle as permanent.
MU is one of the three global memory manufacturers, primarily engaged in DRAM (including HBM) and NAND. It is currently at the top of an AI-driven super-cycle: FY26 Q3 (ended 2026-05-28) revenue was $41.5B, nearly double the same quarter last year, while operating costs were virtually unchanged ($6.4B), pushing gross margin to ~85% and net margin to ~68% — historical extremes that are unsustainable. Nine-month revenue was $78.96B, net income $47.27B.
Key judgment: Memory is a highly mean-reverting cyclical industry (FY23 the company still lost $5.8B, FY24 net income was only $0.78B). Capitalizing peak earnings is the classic error in cyclical stock investing. Using a mid-cycle normalized net income of ~$40B, a 12x P/E, and adding ~$19.6B net cash, we cross-validate to a fair value range of $282 (DCF) to $425 (comps), scenario-weighted $484, rounding to $470.
Reverse DCF shows: the current price implies a ~35% CAGR in FCF over the next 5 years (with the base already at a peak), equivalent to assuming the current 68% net margin is the new normal. This is a very high bar. We acknowledge the structural uplift in the earnings base from AI/HBM is real (hence fair value well above historical cycles), but the current price has already exhausted the certainty of the cycle. Conviction level set to 'Low', with a wide outcome range ($180 bear to $921 bull).
How we value it
Cyclical stock normalized earnings valuation (mid-cycle P/E + DCF + scenario weighting) supplemented by reverse DCF to test price-implied expectations
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Micron Technology, Inc.
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments. The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and technology leadership products that include 1y DRAM and G9 NAND technologies. It also offers storage products, such as data center solid-state drives (SSD), client SSD storage, and auto and industrial SSD storage; managed NAND; NAND flash; NOR flash; and memory cards. In addition, the company provides design tools, including FBGA and part decoders; DRAM power calculators; NAND power calculators; simulation models; chipset compatibility guides; serial presence-detection tools; cross-reference tools; UFSparm; SSD firmware; software and drivers; storage executive software; and obsolete part catalogs. It markets its semiconductor memory and storage products under the Micron and Crucial brands. The company serves the data center, PC, graphics, networking, automotive, industrial, and consumer embedded markets, as well as the smartphone and other mobile-device markets. It sells its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; web-based customer direct sales channel; and channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
Frequently asked questions
Is MU a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $470.00 versus a current price of $970.82 — a 107% premium to fair value.
What is MU's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is $470.00, versus a current market price of $970.82.
Is MU overvalued or undervalued?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 107% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $470.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.