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Priced above base case
What is Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (SIVE.ST) worth?
Currently $40.98 — above the base case ($4.50) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $10.5B
As of 2026-07-16, Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (SIVE.ST) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $15.00 versus a current price of $40.98 — a 173% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE.ST) is a speculative optionality bet, not a value stock. The ~10.5bn SEK market cap (35.7 SEK, 16 Jul 2026) sits on a business generating only ~300m SEK of declining revenue (-21% YoY), near-zero/negative gross margin, and ~100m SEK of annual cash burn. Trailing metrics are extreme: 43x EV/revenue, ~12x book, negative EBITDA and FCF. Reverse-DCF confirms the obvious — the price cannot be explained by cash flows; the value the market ascribes is entirely the AI-datacenter silicon-photonics story (GlobalFoundries collaboration, O-Net/Enablence light-source module, a claimed ~$800m pipeline).
On a fundamentals-today comp (5x EV/sales) the shares are worth ~4.8 SEK. Our probability-weighted scenario framework — the only honest way to value a pre-profit story stock — puts fair value around 15 SEK, well below the market. At 35.7 the market EV implies ~13x EV/revenue on 800m SEK of future revenue (2.6x current sales); effectively it is pricing our bull case close to fully. We see the risk/reward as skewed to the downside, with a real liquidity/dilution overhang, but flag low confidence given a genuinely wide outcome range.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios (EV/revenue optionality) + fundamentals comps; DCF rejected (negative FCF)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ)
Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells chips, components, modules, and subsystems in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company operates through Wireless and Photonics segments. It provides products based on semiconductor technology for 5G mmWave networks, as well as optical semiconductors for fiber networks, wireless optical networks, and sensors. In addition, the company offers radio-frequency integrated circuits, evaluation kits and 5G RFICs for various applications, such as fixed wireless access, 5G Open RAN, radar, train tracking, and satellite communications. Further, III-V compound semiconductor laser devices for optical communication, sensing/sensors, and wireless networks. Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) has a partnership agreement with LioniX International to develop laser technology. Additionally, it has a strategic partnership with O-Net Technologies and Enablence Technologies Inc. to develop an advanced external light source module for AI datacenters and HPC systems; Tachyon Networks Inc. for the development of 28GHz and 60GHz mmWave transceivers for the fixed wireless access market; and with GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. to develop silicon photonics solutions for AI infrastructure market. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Kista, Sweden.
Frequently asked questions
Is SIVE.ST a buy?
As of 2026-07-16, Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (SIVE.ST) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $15.00 versus a current price of $40.98 — a 173% premium to fair value.
What is SIVE.ST's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (SIVE.ST) is $15.00, versus a current market price of $40.98.
Is SIVE.ST overvalued or undervalued?
Sivers Semiconductors AB (publ) (SIVE.ST) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 173% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $15.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.