Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) worth?
Currently $346.19 — 4% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $4.3T
As of 2026-07-17, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $360.00 versus a current price of $346.19 — a 4% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Verdict: broadly fair, slightly undervalued. At the 17 Jul 2026 close of $353.81, Alphabet’s market capitalisation is about $4.32trn. We derive an intrinsic value of approximately $360/share—virtually in line with the current quote. This is not a glaring mispricing but a story of a superb oligopoly that is front‑loading massive AI investment and still delivering on earnings quality and growth.
The core logic: FY2025 revenue $402.8bn (up 15% y/y), net income $132.2bn, operating margin ~32%; Q1 2026 revenue $109.9bn (up 22% y/y) and operating profit $39.7bn (up 30% y/y) extended the acceleration. However, reported free cash flow is depressed—TTM operating cash flow $174.4bn while capex has surged to ~$110bn (annualising towards ~$140bn, about 31% of revenue vs a historical 15–18%), leaving TTM FCF at only ~$64bn.
As a result, a raw FCF‑based DCF ($256) understates enterprise value, while a forward‑earnings peer multiple (~$439) better captures current profitability. Blending the two and weighting across scenarios yields an intrinsic value near $360, consistent with the market price. The current quote embeds roughly 19% five‑year FCF growth and ~22x forward EV/EBITDA—achievable in the base case but leaving little room for disappointment on AI capex returns.
How we value it
Blend of DCF and peer forward P/E multiples, validated with scenario weighting
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is GOOG a buy?
As of 2026-07-17, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $360.00 versus a current price of $346.19 — a 4% discount to fair value.
What is GOOG's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is $360.00, versus a current market price of $346.19.
Is GOOG overvalued or undervalued?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 4% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $360.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.