Verdict
Fairly valued
Home · GOOG
What is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) worth?
Currently $335.31 — 7% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $4.3T
As of 2026-07-17, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $360.00 versus a current price of $335.31 — a 7% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Conclusion: broadly fair valuation, trades at a modest discount to intrinsic value. Our intrinsic value estimate of approximately $360 per share suggests the stock trades around fair value – this isn't a clear mispricing, but rather a top-tier oligopoly that is front-loading massive AI investment while still delivering earnings quality and growth.
Core logic: FY2025 revenue of $402.8 billion (+15% YoY), net income $132.2 billion, operating margin ~32%; Q1 2026 revenue $109.9 billion (+22% YoY), operating income $39.7 billion (+30% YoY) – momentum is accelerating. However, reported free cash flow is depressed: TTM operating cash flow $174.4 billion, capex has surged to about $110 billion (run-rate heading toward ~$140 billion, ~31% of revenue, far above the historical 15%–18%), leaving TTM free cash flow at just ~$64 billion.
Consequently, a DCF based purely on FCF yields $256, which understates enterprise value, while a forward earnings-based comparable approach (~$439) better captures earning power. Blending the two and weighting scenarios, intrinsic value settles around $360, virtually matching the market price. Current pricing implies roughly 19% five-year FCF growth / ~22x forward EV/EBITDA – achievable in the base case, though with limited room for disappointment on AI capex returns.
How we value it
DCF + comparable company (forward P/E) blend, supplemented by scenario weighting
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is GOOG a buy?
As of 2026-07-17, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $360.00 versus a current price of $335.31 — a 7% discount to fair value.
What is GOOG's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is $360.00, versus a current market price of $335.31.
Is GOOG overvalued or undervalued?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 7% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $360.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.