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Priced below base case
What is MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) worth?
Currently $31.57 — below the base case ($34.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $5.0B
As of 2026-07-16, MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $33.00 versus a current price of $31.57 — a 4% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
MDA Space (NYSE/TSX: MDA) — US$30.79, fair value ~US$33, roughly fairly valued with a modest discount. MDA is one of the few scaled, profitable pure-plays on the space/defense build-out: satellite systems (MDA AURORA software-defined satellites, Lightspeed, Globalstar, OneWeb), robotics & space operations (Canadarm3, SKYMAKER), and geo-intelligence (Earth observation, C4ISR), now being expanded by the ~US$662M acquisition of a 70% stake in Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS) to build an AI geo-intelligence platform.
The operating story is strong: 37% five-year revenue CAGR, FY2025 revenue ~US$1,175M and EBITDA ~US$223M, a new Montréal high-volume line (up to 400 satellites/yr), and a net-cash balance sheet after the March 2026 NYSE IPO. The stock has de-rated ~17% from its June level (US$37 → US$31), and post-dilution the EV is roughly flat while pro-forma EBITDA rises — so the multiple has actually compressed.
The catch is that the ~US$29B pipeline is still a pipeline: Q1 2026 book-to-bill was only 0.31x, backlog fell ~24% YoY, and FCF is negative on heavy growth capex. At ~20x 2026E / ~16x 2027E EV/EBITDA (or ~13x pro-forma for CLS), the price isn't demanding for a 20%+ grower, but it already assumes clean conversion. We see MDA as roughly fair with a small margin of safety — a name to own on execution proof points and to add on a pullback, not a screaming discount today.
(All monetary figures in USD; company reports in CAD, converted at USD/CAD 1.39.)
How we value it
Probability-weighted EV/EBITDA comps (forward, pro-forma for CLS) with a DCF floor cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About MDA Space Ltd.
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers satellite communications solutions, such as space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, and IoT connectivity; MDA AURORA, a software-defined digital satellite product line; and autonomous robotics systems and services used to operate in space and on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. The company also provides robotic systems, robotic interfaces, tooling, robotic ground control stations, and operations services; electro-optic and light detection and ranging sensors, vision and targeting systems, guidance, navigation, and control subsystems and planetary rover locomotion subsystems; MDA SKYMAKER, a suite of scalable and modular space robotics; and Canadarm3, a robotics system. In addition, it offers satellite-generated imagery and data to deliver critical and value-added insights for end users, such as national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance; collection, processing, and dissemination of Earth imagery data from space; defense command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions, including command and control systems and airborne surveillance solutions; aeronautical navigation information solutions; and long endurance uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services. Further, operates as an owner and operator of the RADARSAT-2 Earth observation satellite; and is involved in the operation of MDA CHORUS, an Earth observation mission. It serves governments and space agencies, commercial space companies, and defense and aerospace prime contractors in the space industry. The company was formerly known as MDA Ltd. and changed its name to MDA Space Ltd. in May 2024. MDA Space Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.
Frequently asked questions
Is MDA a buy?
As of 2026-07-16, MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $33.00 versus a current price of $31.57 — a 4% discount to fair value.
What is MDA's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) is $33.00, versus a current market price of $31.57.
Is MDA overvalued or undervalued?
MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 4% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $33.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.