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Priced above base case
What is Oklo Inc. (OKLO) worth?
Currently $44.13 — above the base case ($10.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $7.8B
As of 2026-07-15, Oklo Inc. (OKLO) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $41.00 versus a current price of $44.13 — a 8% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Oklo (OKLO) develops Aurora fast-fission 'powerhouses' (15-75 MWe) on a build-own-operate model, plus nuclear fuel recycling/fabrication and radioisotopes (via Atomic Alchemy). It is genuinely pre-revenue — $0 sales through FY25 and Q1-26 — burning ~$50-60M/quarter, funded by a ~$2.3B liquid balance sheet built from relentless equity issuance ($1.18B raised in Q1-26 alone). At $45.05 the market cap is ~$7.8B and EV ~$5.5B, meaning investors pay ~$32/share for a business whose first commercial plant is not targeted before 2028.
This is a platform-optionality/story stock; cash flows cannot value it (reverse-DCF confirms no growth rate explains the price). I frame it as net cash (~$13/sh floor) plus a risk-adjusted platform, and probability-weight bear/base/bull. That yields a fair value of ~$41/share — essentially in line with the current price. The narrative is legitimately exciting (Switch 12GW MPA, Meta prepayment/Ohio campus, DOE/INL milestones, data-center demand), but the value depends on converting non-binding LOIs into funded projects and financing a tens-of-billions capex program without crushing dilution. Verdict: roughly fair, modest premium; a defined-odds bet, not a value opportunity.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios + SOTP (net cash + risk-adjusted platform optionality); reverse-DCF used to show cash flows do not support the price
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Oklo Inc.
Oklo Inc. develops fission power plants to provide energy at scale to customers in the United States. The company offers Aurora Powerhouse, which is designed to produce between 15 and up to 75 megawatts of electricity. It is also commercializing nuclear fuel recycling and fuel fabrication technology that can convert used nuclear fuel into usable fuel for its reactors. The company was formerly known as AltC Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Oklo Inc. in May 2024. Oklo Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is OKLO a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Oklo Inc. (OKLO) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $41.00 versus a current price of $44.13 — a 8% premium to fair value.
What is OKLO's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is $41.00, versus a current market price of $44.13.
Is OKLO overvalued or undervalued?
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 8% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $41.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.