Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) worth?
Currently $3.08 — 5% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $1.7B
As of 2026-06-22, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $3.25 versus a current price of $3.08 — a 5% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) is a clinical-stage 'TechBio' company built around the Recursion OS — an AI-native, end-to-end drug-discovery platform — augmented by the Exscientia business combination. The investment case is not earnings or cash flow (the company burns ~$380-450M/year and has no approved products) but optionality: a broad early-stage pipeline plus large-pharma partnerships (Roche/Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer, Tempus, Takeda) carrying multi-billion-dollar headline milestone potential.
Our probability-weighted NAV builds to a base case of $3.06/share, essentially in line with the $3.20 market price. A scenario tree that gives credit for platform monetization yields a blended fair value of ~$3.28, supporting a $3.25 target (~2% upside). With a binary pipeline, a near-term financing/dilution overhang and disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls offsetting genuine platform optionality, risk/reward is balanced. We initiate at Hold, $3.25 target.
The stock is a high-beta call option on AI-enabled drug discovery: the bull path (REC-4881 to a registrational FAP program, REC-1245 efficacy, partnership milestones) supports ~$6; the bear path (clinical setback, dilutive raise) points to ~$1.50. We would turn constructive on de-risking catalysts paired with non-dilutive funding.
How we value it
Probability-weighted NAV / sum-of-the-parts (net cash + risk-adjusted pipeline rNPV + platform/partnership value, less financing dilution)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the decoding biology and chemistry by integrating technological innovations across biology, chemistry, automation, data science, and engineering to industrialize drug discovery in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company develops REC-4881, which is in Phase 1b/2 clinical trial to treat familial adenomatous polyposis; REC-617, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat advanced solid tumors; REC-1245, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat biomarker-enriched solid tumors and lymphoma; REC-3565 that is in Phase 1/2 for the treatment of relapsed or refractory B-cell malignancies; and REC-4539, a reversible, CNS penetrant, orally bioavailable, and potential best-in-class inhibitor of LSD1 for the treatment of solid tumors and hematology oncology. Its preclinical stage product includes REC-7735 for the treatment of HR+ breast cancer; and REC-102 for the treatment of hypophosphatasia. The company has collaboration and agreement with Roche & Genentech; Sanofi; Bayer AG; Tempus; and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited. Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Frequently asked questions
Is RXRX a buy?
As of 2026-06-22, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $3.25 versus a current price of $3.08 — a 5% discount to fair value.
What is RXRX's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) is $3.25, versus a current market price of $3.08.
Is RXRX overvalued or undervalued?
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 5% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $3.25.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.