Verdict
Undervalued
Home · STZ
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) worth?
Currently $128.18 — 22% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $22.1B
As of 2026-07-06, Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $165.00 versus a current price of $128.18 — a 22% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Conclusion: STZ is undervalued; the stock trades at a substantial discount to our $165 intrinsic value.
Constellation Brands has completed its transformation from a diversified alcoholic beverage company into a high-margin consumer staples business centered on Mexican imported beer. Following the divestiture of the mainstream wine business in June 2025, beer (Corona, Modelo Especial, Pacifico) now generates the vast majority of revenue and essentially all of the profit, with the beer segment’s operating margin running at roughly 35% and Modelo Especial claiming the No. 1 U.S. beer brand spot by volume. This is an asset with deep brand moats and predictable cash flows.
The market currently awards STZ a ~10× forward P/E, roughly 12× trailing P/E, and about 9.9× EV/EBITDA—a multiple that belongs to a cyclically challenged sunset industry, not to a consumer staples leader sporting 35% operating margins. The discount stems from three concerns: structural decline in U.S. alcohol consumption (GLP-1 drugs, younger generations drinking less), recent softness among the core Hispanic consumer base, and tariff risks on Mexican imports and aluminum. These concerns are real, but they are already over-priced into the stock.
Our DCF (7.5% WACC, 2.5% terminal growth) yields $168 per share; a peer EV/EBITDA comp gives $184; a peer P/E comp gives $178. All three converge. Sensitivity analysis shows that the current price is justified only at an ~8.5% WACC—a punitive discount rate for a defensive stock with a beta of just 0.38. Based on data as of 2026-07-06, we estimate fair value at approximately $165.
How we value it
DCF-led, cross-validated with peer multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Frequently asked questions
Is STZ a buy?
As of 2026-07-06, Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $165.00 versus a current price of $128.18 — a 22% discount to fair value.
What is STZ's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $165.00, versus a current market price of $128.18.
Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 22% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $165.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.