Verdict
Undervalued
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) worth?
Currently $130.66 — 21% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $22.1B
As of 2026-07-06, Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $165.00 versus a current price of $130.66 — a 21% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Conclusion: STZ is undervalued, with the current price of $129.31 representing a ~22% discount to our intrinsic value of $165.
Constellation Brands has completed its transformation from a diversified beverage alcohol company to a high-margin consumer staple company centered on Mexican import beer. Following the divestiture of its mainstream wine business in June 2025, beer (Corona, Modelo Especial, Pacifico) contributes the vast majority of revenue and nearly all profits, with beer segment operating margins of ~35%, and Modelo Especial already the #1 beer brand in the U.S. by sales. This is an asset with deep brand moats and predictable cash flows.
The market currently prices STZ at ~10x forward P/E, ~12x TTM P/E, and ~9.9x EV/EBITDA — this is a valuation for a cyclical sunset industry, not for a consumer staple leader with 35% operating margins. The discount stems from three concerns: structural decline in U.S. alcohol consumption (GLP-1, younger people drinking less), recent demand weakness among the core Hispanic customer base, and risks from Mexican imports and aluminum tariffs. These concerns are real but have been overpriced.
Our DCF (WACC 7.5%, terminal 2.5%) yields $168 per share, EV/EBITDA peer multiple yields $184, and P/E peer yields $178. The three are consistent. Sensitivities show that the current price is only justified at a ~8.5% WACC — a punitive discount rate for a defensive stock with a beta of just 0.38. As of 2026-07-06 data, we believe fair value is approximately $165.
How we value it
DCF primary + peer multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E) cross-validation
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Frequently asked questions
Is STZ a buy?
As of 2026-07-06, Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $165.00 versus a current price of $130.66 — a 21% discount to fair value.
What is STZ's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is $165.00, versus a current market price of $130.66.
Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 21% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $165.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.