Read
Priced near base case
What is Vistra Corp. (VST) worth?
Currently $162.33 — in line with the base case ($158.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $53.7B
As of 2026-07-15, Vistra Corp. (VST) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $157.00 versus a current price of $162.33 — a 3% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Vistra (VST, $159.18 as of 2026-07-15) is a leading US merchant power producer and competitive retailer — ~44 GW of gas, nuclear, coal, solar and storage serving ~5M customers. The stock has re-rated hard on the AI/data-center electricity-demand theme, and the fundamentals are genuinely improving: Q1'26 delivered $5.64B revenue and $2.87 diluted EPS, and the July 14 2026 8-K confirmed Vistra cleared ~10,924 MW in the PJM 2028/29 capacity auction at $325/MW-day (~$1.3B/yr), evidence that tight Eastern-grid supply is here to stay.
My probability-weighted fair value is ~$157/share, essentially in line with the $159 market price — the stock is roughly fairly valued, with the market already paying for the optionality. A pure FCF DCF supports only ~$116; a 12x EV/EBITDA comp supports ~$185; the truth sits between, and the wide range is why I hold low confidence in any single point. Reverse-DCF shows the price already discounts ~11% sustained FCF growth. I'd want a pullback, or confirmation of signed large-load contracts, before underwriting fresh upside.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios (EV/EBITDA comps + FCF DCF), cross-checked with reverse-DCF
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Vistra Corp.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is VST a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Vistra Corp. (VST) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $157.00 versus a current price of $162.33 — a 3% premium to fair value.
What is VST's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Vistra Corp. (VST) is $157.00, versus a current market price of $162.33.
Is VST overvalued or undervalued?
Vistra Corp. (VST) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 3% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $157.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.