Verdict
Undervalued
What is Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) worth?
Currently $20.98 — 11% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $5.2B
As of 2026-07-03, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $23.50 versus a current price of $20.98 — a 11% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Amentum (AMTM) is a ~$14.2bn-revenue global engineering and technology services provider to the U.S. and allied governments, formed in September 2024 from the merger of Legacy Amentum with Jacobs' Critical Mission Solutions business. It runs two segments — Digital Solutions (intelligence analytics, space, cyber, IT) and Global Engineering Solutions (environmental remediation, nuclear, platform engineering/sustainment) — with ~81% of revenue from the U.S. federal government and a $47.1bn backlog.
The investment case is a deleveraging and margin-normalization story, not a growth story. Post-merger the company carries ~$3.5bn net debt (~3.5x EBITDA) and is prioritizing debt paydown. As debt falls, interest expense drops; separately, large non-cash amortization of acquired backlog is rolling off (Q2 FY26 amortization fell to $94M from $120M a year earlier). Both mechanically lift free cash flow and GAAP EPS — which is why forward P/E (~7.6x on ~$2.77 consensus EPS) looks far cheaper than trailing (~35x on $0.60).
The catch: organic revenue is flat-to-down (Q2 FY26 -0.4% YoY, dragged by JV transitions and divestitures), margins are thin (~7% EBITDA), and the whole model is levered to a federal budget environment that saw two shutdowns in FY26. Our fair value of ~$23.5 sits ~10% above the current price — modestly undervalued, with the meaningful upside case contingent on the re-rating and debt paydown fully playing out.
How we value it
DCF (primary) + EV/EBITDA and P/E comps cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions. The company offers digital and data-driven solutions, including intelligence analytics, space system development, cybersecurity, and IT to the federal government and commercial clients. It also provides large-scale environmental remediation, nuclear power solutions, platform engineering, sustainment, and supply chain management for the U.S. government and allied nations. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Frequently asked questions
Is AMTM a buy?
As of 2026-07-03, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $23.50 versus a current price of $20.98 — a 11% discount to fair value.
What is AMTM's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) is $23.50, versus a current market price of $20.98.
Is AMTM overvalued or undervalued?
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 11% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $23.50.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.