What is Northstar Clean Technologies Inc. (ROOF.V) worth?

Northstar Clean Technologies is a Calgary-based clean-tech venture commercializing a proprietary process to recover liquid asphalt, aggregate and fiber (and now limestone) from discarded asphalt shingles. It is genuinely pre-commercial: FY2025 revenue was ~C$0.6M against a ~C$14.8M net loss and ~C$10M negative EBITDA, with capex-heavy facility build-out driving deeply negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is the defining feature — roughly C$48M of debt (including leases) and negative equity, funded by recurring dilutive raises (a US$10M placement, US$9M first tranche, plus C$13.8M of debt drawn in the March-2026 quarter). Operationally the story is advancing: first liquid asphalt produced from tear-off shingles at Calgary, a five-year City of Calgary feedstock contract, Baltimore chosen as the first U.S. site, and a fourth product line added. But the equity's value rests entirely on scaling that promise before leverage and burn force a distressed outcome. I classify this as a story/optionality stock and value it with probability-weighted scenarios: fair value ~C$0.17, essentially where it trades. The verdict is 'roughly fairly valued' — a high-variance bet with defined odds rather than a mispricing.

Probability-weighted scenarios (venture-stage optionality); DCF/comps not meaningful on negative FCF/EBITDA

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.