Verdict
Overvalued
What is Ford Motor Company (F) worth?
Currently $14.27 — 14% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Cyclical
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $56.6B
As of 2026-07-15, Ford Motor Company (F) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $12.50 versus a current price of $14.27 — a 14% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Ford (F) at $14.20 is roughly fairly valued to modestly expensive — our fair value is ~$12.50, an ~12% premium in the current price. FY2025's headline -$8.2B net loss (-$2.06 EPS) was overwhelmingly special items — EV program cancellations, the BOSK battery JV disposition (~$3.5B pre-tax), and Q4 impairments — not a collapse in the underlying business. The proof is Q1 2026: net income of $2.55B, adjusted EBIT of $3.49B, adjusted EPS of $0.66, and 12.6% trailing ROIC. Normalize through the noise and Ford earns roughly $1.55-1.60 of adjusted EPS mid-cycle, similar to 2024's $1.84 but haircut for 2026 tariff drag.
The issue isn't quality of the core (Ford Pro commercial and Ford Blue hybrids are genuinely profitable) — it's that autos are a low-multiple, high-fixed-cost, share-losing business, and at $14.20 the stock already trades at ~9x normalized EPS and 1.5x book, at the upper end of where a mature OEM with a captive finance arm belongs. The market (street median target $14.25, consensus Hold) sees it as fairly valued; we see slightly more downside than up, with a wide cyclical range ($8 bear / $12.50 base / $17 bull). The 4.3% dividend provides support but isn't bulletproof if the cycle turns.
How we value it
Mid-cycle normalized P/E + peer comps, cross-checked with an automotive-only FCF DCF and P/B
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Ford Motor Company
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
Frequently asked questions
Is F a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Ford Motor Company (F) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $12.50 versus a current price of $14.27 — a 14% premium to fair value.
What is F's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Ford Motor Company (F) is $12.50, versus a current market price of $14.27.
Is F overvalued or undervalued?
Ford Motor Company (F) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 14% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $12.50.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.