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What is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) worth?
Currently $354.08 — above the base case ($233.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $1.5T
As of 2026-07-22, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $233.00 versus a current price of $354.08 — a 52% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Executive Summary
Tesla's Q2 2026 update (quarter ended 30-Jun-2026) confirms the company sits at the inflection between automaker and "real-world AI" platform — and it sharpens both sides of the debate.
The good: - Revenue re-accelerated to $28.2B, +26% YoY, a record Q2, with trailing-twelve-month revenue crossing $100B for the first time. Record Q2 deliveries of 480,126. - Robotaxi is scaling: unsupervised rides now live/ramping in seven metros (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, plus SF Bay Area with safety driver), with Phoenix and Las Vegas in preparation. Cybercab entered production at Giga Texas. - FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M (+56% YoY), with a 55%+ attach rate on new North American deliveries — the clearest evidence yet of a recurring-software revenue path. - Services & Other hit record gross profit of $648M (14% margin); energy storage returned to growth (13.5 GWh deployed).
The concerning: - Operating income fell 57% YoY to $0.4B; operating margin collapsed to 1.4% (from 4.2% in Q1'26). GAAP gross margin dropped to 16.8%; auto gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3%. - Free cash flow swung to –$1.1B as capex spiked 142% YoY to $5.8B — Tesla is explicitly in its "largest period of investment." - GAAP net income of $1.1B was flattered by a $1.0B unrealized SpaceX equity mark ($763M net of tax) plus a $274M tax item; underlying operating earnings are far weaker.
We value Tesla with a probability-weighted SOTP: core auto + energy on EV/EBITDA (~$39/share), and Robotaxi/Optimus/FSD as risk-adjusted options. Blended fair value is $233/share, a substantial premium to the current price. We believe the market is pricing the option stack too close to certainty.
How we value it
Probability-weighted SOTP (EV/EBITDA for core auto + energy; risk-adjusted DCF/TAM for Robotaxi, Optimus, FSD)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is TSLA a buy?
As of 2026-07-22, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $233.00 versus a current price of $354.08 — a 52% premium to fair value.
What is TSLA's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is $233.00, versus a current market price of $354.08.
Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 52% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $233.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.