Verdict
Overvalued
What is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) worth?
Currently $378.93 — 63% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $1.5T
As of 2026-07-14, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $232.00 versus a current price of $378.93 — a 63% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Executive Summary
Tesla, Inc. is at a critical inflection point, transitioning from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a "physical-world AI platform." The June 2025 launch of its Robotaxi service, the start of Cybercab pilot production in Q1 2026, and energy storage quarterly deployments of 8.8 GWh—these milestones confirm the company's ambition to go beyond traditional automotive. However, the financial data during this transition paints a more complex picture:
- FY2025 Revenue $94.8B, down 2.9% YoY (vs. $97.7B in FY2024), as the automotive business faces a dual squeeze from price wars and weak demand
- FY2025 Operating Income $4.85B, generating an operating margin of only 5.1%, sharply down from the peak of 16.9% in 2022
- FY2025 Net Income $3.79B, nearly halved from $7.13B in FY2024, with net margin at just 4.0%
- Q1 2026 Net Income $477M, EPS $0.13, annualized ROE below 3%
- Positive: FCF improved to $6.2B (FY2025), net cash of $28.9B, and a very healthy balance sheet
We use a probability-weighted SOTP framework for valuation: core Automotive + Energy valued via comparable EV/EBITDA ($47/share), with Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD licensing valued via risk-adjusted DCF and TAM methods. The weighted fair value is $232/share, implying that the current price of $395.68 reflects an approximately 71% premium. We believe the market is overly optimistic on Robotaxi and Optimus pricing, and advise investors to wait for a more attractive entry point.
How we value it
Probability-Weighted SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is TSLA a buy?
As of 2026-07-14, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $232.00 versus a current price of $378.93 — a 63% premium to fair value.
What is TSLA's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is $232.00, versus a current market price of $378.93.
Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 63% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $232.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.