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Priced below base case
What is Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) worth?
Currently $20.31 — below the base case ($22.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-23 05:27 · Market cap $27.2B
As of 2026-07-20, Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $23.50 versus a current price of $20.31 — a 14% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Pop Mart (PMRTY, Hong Kong-listed entity 9992.HK) is one of the world’s fastest-expanding designer toy / IP consumption companies. In 2025, fueled by Labubu (THE MONSTERS series), revenue rose ~+174% YoY to approximately RMB 36B, net profit surged ~+271% to around RMB 12B, with gross margin 72%, operating margin ~48%, ROE as high as 78%, and a net cash position of about RMB 14.4B (~$2.0B) alongside robust free cash flow (TTM approx. RMB 9.1B).
The paradox: despite such explosive growth, the ADR trades at only about 14.5x TTM P/E and recently suffered a ~22% single-day plunge and roughly $28 billion market cap wipeout. The reason is clear — the market fears earnings are overly reliant on the Labubu hit, viewing 2025 as a peak rather than a new baseline. Our reverse DCF shows that the current $20.5 price implies only about 13.6% five-year FCF growth, meaning the market has already fully priced in a cooling.
We judge the current pricing as slightly conservative. Based on probability-weighted bear/base/bull scenarios, fair value is around $23.5/ADR, a modest discount to the current price. But this is a hit-driven story with a wide outcome distribution: upside depends on whether IP portfolio relay and overseas platformization materialize; downside rests on whether Labubu proves a one-time phenomenon. We assign 'low' confidence and emphasize the range over a precise point value.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenario approach (normalized P/E + DCF + peer multiples cross-check)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Pop Mart International Group Limited
Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes. It sells its products through a network of retail stores and roboshops; online channels, including Tmall flagship store, DouYin, Pop Draw, and other online channels; and wholesale channels and others. The company also provides internet technology, customer, and technology development services; and operates playgrounds, as well as engages in investment and exhibition activities. Pop Mart International Group Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Frequently asked questions
Is PMRTY a buy?
As of 2026-07-20, Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $23.50 versus a current price of $20.31 — a 14% discount to fair value.
What is PMRTY's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) is $23.50, versus a current market price of $20.31.
Is PMRTY overvalued or undervalued?
Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 14% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $23.50.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.