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Priced above base case
What is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) worth?
Currently $216.92 — above the base case ($137.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $49.7B
As of 2026-07-15, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $142.00 versus a current price of $216.92 — a 53% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Nebius Group is the AI-infrastructure business spun out of the former Yandex N.V. Its core is a full-stack GPU cloud (large NVIDIA clusters, developer tooling) growing at a startling clip — quarterly revenue went $100.7M → $146.1M → $227.7M → $399.0M across Q2'25–Q1'26, a ~$1.6B annualised run-rate off a $529.8M FY25 base. Around it sit smaller venture units (TripleTen edtech, Avride autonomous driving) and marketable minority stakes (notably a ClickHouse-type holding) whose non-cash fair-value gains ($597M in Q2'25, $781M in Q1'26) are what produce the flattering reported EPS. Strip those out and the business is loss-making at the operating line (FY25 operating loss $611.7M) and burning cash (FY25 FCF ~-$3.7B) to fund a $4.07B capex build.
The investment question is purely one of price for growth. At $195.57 the market capitalises the group at ~$49.7B, or ~20x 2026E revenue / ~11x 2027E revenue — a full multiple even for a hyper-growth neocloud. My probability-weighted SOTP lands at ~$142, so the current quote already banks most of the plausible upside. Recent news flow (a Meta self-build cloud threat, a $1B AI deal, and a pivot to an 'asset-light' partner-owned data-center model) captures the tension: enormous TAM and real momentum, against fierce hyperscaler competition and relentless funding needs.
How we value it
Probability-weighted SOTP (forward EV/revenue on core AI cloud + marked stakes + net cash), cross-checked with implied-multiple reverse test
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Nebius Group N.V.
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company also provides TripleTen, an edtech platform for re-skilling individuals for careers in technolgy; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robotics. It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corporation to support the expansion of the company's AI cloud infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Frequently asked questions
Is NBIS a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $142.00 versus a current price of $216.92 — a 53% premium to fair value.
What is NBIS's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is $142.00, versus a current market price of $216.92.
Is NBIS overvalued or undervalued?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 53% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $142.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.