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What is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) worth?
Currently $226.39 — above the base case ($179.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $55.4B
As of 2026-07-23, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $178.00 versus a current price of $226.39 — a 27% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
This represents a major revision to our NBIS coverage. We have replaced the (erroneous) EV/EBITDA approach with forward revenue multiples and a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework that better captures the business model, lifting fair value sharply from $18.46 to roughly $178.
Nebius is a pure-play AI cloud infrastructure (neocloud) company carved out and reorganised from the former Yandex N.V., comprising large-scale GPU clusters and a cloud platform, plus non-core option value from its ClickHouse stake, Avride (autonomous driving) and TripleTen (edtech). Key developments since our last report:
- Exponential revenue ramp: For the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (1Q26), revenue reached $399 million, up 75% sequentially, implying an annualised run-rate of about $1.6 billion; gross margin stood at roughly 74%.
- NVIDIA discloses a 9.3% stake, sending the stock up nearly 19% in a single day — a strong endorsement of Nebius’s technology roadmap and supply-chain position.
- Optimised financing structure: In July 2026, the company signed a roughly $775 million asset-backed term loan (ABS), replacing equity with project-level debt and reducing dilution.
- Earnings quality flag: Net income is heavily distorted by unrealised fair-value gains on securities (reaching $780.6 million in 1Q26); strip those out and the business is still operating at a loss (operating loss of -$128 million).
At the prevailing market price, the market is embedding roughly 19x 2026E revenue and about 10x 2027E revenue — which sits at the upper end of the plausible range for the fastest-growing neoclouds, but already prices in excellent execution almost in full. Our base-case fair value of $179 falls a little below the current price, suggesting the stock trades at a modest premium, while underscoring that this is an odds-based judgement with a wide $82–$288 band.
How we value it
Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) + forward EV/Revenue multiples, supplemented by a reverse valuation test
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Nebius Group N.V.
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company also provides TripleTen, an edtech platform for re-skilling individuals for careers in technolgy; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robotics. It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corporation to support the expansion of the company's AI cloud infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Frequently asked questions
Is NBIS a buy?
As of 2026-07-23, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $178.00 versus a current price of $226.39 — a 27% premium to fair value.
What is NBIS's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is $178.00, versus a current market price of $226.39.
Is NBIS overvalued or undervalued?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 27% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $178.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.