Verdict
Fairly valued
Home · GOOGL
What is Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) worth?
Currently $338.46 — 1% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $4.5T
As of 2026-07-22, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $335.00 versus a current price of $338.46 — a 1% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Alphabet carries a ~$4.2T market cap and just posted a standout Q2 FY26. Revenue grew 24% to $119.8B (its 12th straight double-digit quarter and an acceleration from Q1's ~22%), operating income rose 30% to $40.8B (34% margin, +2pts), and Google Cloud was the star — up 82% to $24.8B with operating income tripling to $8.8B (~36% margin vs ~21% a year ago). Reported EPS of $9.11 is heavily distorted: a ~$99B unrealized gain on equity securities added ~$6.26 to EPS, so normalized Q2 EPS is ~$2.85 and normalized TTM EPS ~$10.35 (up from ~$9.70 prior).
The tension in the story sharpened. Operations are firing — Search +17%, YouTube ads +13%, Cloud inflecting — but the AI capex build is now running even hotter: Q2 capex $44.9B (~$180B annualized), which pushed reported free cash flow negative (-$5.9B) for the quarter and to just $53.3B TTM. Alphabet also raised ~$70B of external capital in June (common equity, a new $19B 6.25% mandatory convertible preferred, and $20.3B of notes) to fund the build — a real departure from its historic self-funding, net-cash posture.
My triangulated fair value rises to ~$335: normalized DCF ~$243, EV/EBITDA comps ~$290–318, P/E comps ~$310, plus a premium for the now-demonstrated Cloud inflection and TPU/Gemini/Waymo optionality. The stock trades roughly around fair value — an outstanding franchise at a full price, no longer at a clear premium.
How we value it
Normalized DCF + EV/EBITDA & P/E comps, cross-checked with reverse-DCF
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is GOOGL a buy?
As of 2026-07-22, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $335.00 versus a current price of $338.46 — a 1% premium to fair value.
What is GOOGL's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is $335.00, versus a current market price of $338.46.
Is GOOGL overvalued or undervalued?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 1% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $335.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.