Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) worth?
Currently $347.15 — 8% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $4.5T
As of 2026-07-15, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $320.00 versus a current price of $347.15 — a 8% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Alphabet at $370.68 (2026-07-15) carries a ~$4.5T market cap and is firing on its fundamentals: FY25 revenue $402.8B (+21% y/y), operating income $129B (32% margin), and Q1'26 revenue +21.8% with operating income +30%. The business is a cash machine — TTM operating cash flow ~$174B — but reported free cash flow is temporarily crushed (TTM ~$64B) by a historic AI/data-center capex build now running above $140B annualized.
Strip the lumpy securities gains (~$51B across the last four quarters, including a $37B gain in Q1'26) and normalized EPS is ~$9.70 versus ~$13 GAAP TTM; the stock trades ~28x GAAP, ~38x normalized, ~25x forward. My triangulated fair value is ~$320: a conservative normalized DCF (~$210), EV/EBITDA comps (~$304) and P/E comps (~$291), with a premium for franchise quality and AI/Cloud/Waymo/TPU optionality.
Bottom line: Alphabet is a best-in-class compounder, but at $370 the market has already paid for successful execution of the AI capex bet. I see it trading at a modest premium (~15%) to intrinsic value — an outstanding business at a full price rather than a bargain.
How we value it
Normalized DCF + EV/EBITDA & P/E comps, cross-checked with reverse-DCF
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is GOOGL a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $320.00 versus a current price of $347.15 — a 8% premium to fair value.
What is GOOGL's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is $320.00, versus a current market price of $347.15.
Is GOOGL overvalued or undervalued?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 8% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $320.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.