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Priced above base case
What is Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) worth?
Currently $69.12 — above the base case ($43.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $49.2B
As of 2026-07-15, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $50.00 versus a current price of $69.12 — a 38% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Rocket Lab (RKLB) at $78.81 is priced for near-flawless execution; I see fair value around $50, a ~35% premium of price over intrinsic value. This is a genuinely impressive operating story — TTM revenue ~$680m growing ~60%, gross margin climbing toward ~38%, a fortress standalone balance sheet (~$1.2bn cash vs ~$139m debt), and the most credible Western alternative to SpaceX. But it is still deeply loss-making (-$198m net loss, -$322m FCF in 2025), and the market capitalises it at ~$49bn — over 60x trailing revenue and ~32x my 2027E revenue.
The story just got more complex: on 28 June 2026 Rocket Lab agreed to buy Iridium Communications ($27/share cash plus stock), funded by a $3.6bn bridge loan. That bolts a real, cash-generative satellite-comms business (and recurring revenue/spectrum) onto the platform, but converts a net-cash balance sheet into a levered one and adds integration risk.
Even crediting generous scarcity multiples, my combined-entity SOTP lands at ~$43 base, with a wide scenario band ($20 bear / $100 bull). The stock can absolutely work if Neutron scales and Rocket Lab becomes the clear #2 launcher — but at today's price you are paying up front for that outcome with little margin of safety. Confidence in the point estimate is deliberately low given the range.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios + combined-entity SOTP, cross-checked with reverse-DCF / implied EV/revenue
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Rocket Lab Corporation
Rocket Lab Corporation, a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions in the United States, Canada, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through launch services and space systems segments. The company provides launch services, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, optical systems, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets and develops flight and ground software. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron, an orbital small launch vehicle for small spacecraft launch services, as well as develops Neutron launch vehicles for large constellation deployments, interplanetary missions, and potentially for human spaceflight. In addition, the company designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for its launch vehicles and spacecraft. It serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. Rocket Lab Corporation was formerly known as Rocket Lab USA, Inc. and changed its name to Rocket Lab Corporation in August 2021. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is RKLB a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $50.00 versus a current price of $69.12 — a 38% premium to fair value.
What is RKLB's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is $50.00, versus a current market price of $69.12.
Is RKLB overvalued or undervalued?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 38% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $50.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.