Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Apple Inc. (AAPL) worth?
Currently $327.74 — 7% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $4.6T
As of 2026-07-14, Apple Inc. (AAPL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $305.00 versus a current price of $327.74 — a 7% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
What changed since our last coverage (2026-06-22, fair value $300): FY26 Q2 (ended 2026-03-28) significantly beat our previous moderate growth assumptions. Total revenue $111.18B (+17% YoY), six-month revenue $254.94B (+16%); iPhone +22% in the quarter, Greater China +28%, Services +16%; overall gross margin rose to 49.3% (vs. 47.1% a year ago), with product gross margin 38.7% and services gross margin 76.7%. Trailing twelve-month net income ~$122.6B, EPS ~$8.27, both notably stronger than FY25. The stock rose from ~$300 to $314.86.
Core conclusion: Fundamentals are stronger than we last assessed, so we raise fair value from $300 to $305; however, the current price is already slightly above fair value, and valuation remains the primary constraint. The component cost inflation we previously worried about did not drag margins this quarter (they expanded instead), but management reiterated in the 10-Q that the pressure is 'expected to intensify,' and this quarter's strong growth includes cyclical/one-off elements such as the iPhone 17 cycle, Greater China rebound, and FX tailwinds – sustainability needs to be confirmed in the Q3 results on July 30.
Investment implication: A high-quality leader worth holding long-term, but the current price lacks a margin of safety – 'reasonably expensive.'
How we value it
DCF + peer P/E, cross-validated with probability-weighted scenarios
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Apple Inc.
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allows customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAPL a buy?
As of 2026-07-14, Apple Inc. (AAPL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $305.00 versus a current price of $327.74 — a 7% premium to fair value.
What is AAPL's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $305.00, versus a current market price of $327.74.
Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 7% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $305.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.