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Priced below base case
What is Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) worth?
Currently $71.20 — below the base case ($95.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-30 08:38 · Market cap $144.9B
As of 2026-07-30, Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $95.00 versus a current price of $71.20 — a 25% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Uber has transitioned from a cash-burning growth story into a self-funding, free-cash-generative platform, and the market has not fully repriced it as such. Trailing free cash flow is roughly $9.8bn on ~$54bn of revenue, revenue is compounding in the mid-teens, adjusted EBITDA is growing far faster, and the company is buying back stock (~$3bn in Q1 2026 alone). Yet a reverse-DCF shows the current price only requires ~4% forward FCF growth to justify — a strikingly low bar.
My scenario-weighted fair value is $95, sitting between a 22x EV/EBITDA comp ($80) and a base-case DCF ($102), with a wide range reflecting two genuine swing factors: autonomous vehicles and the pending €41.50/share cash acquisition of Delivery Hero. AV is a two-sided bet — network accelerant or disintermediation threat. The Delivery Hero deal adds scale and delivery density but also up to €14.2bn of bridge debt and integration/regulatory risk, taking leverage from a comfortable ~0.7x to well above 2x EBITDA.
Net: the core business alone appears worth more than the current price, and the optionality is skewed to the upside. Reported P/E is misleading — 2025 net income was inflated by a ~$4bn deferred-tax benefit and volatile mark-to-market gains on equity stakes — so FCF, not accounting EPS, is the right anchor. Data as of July 30, 2026; latest filing an 8-K dated July 16, 2026 (Delivery Hero BCA).
How we value it
Scenario-weighted two-stage FCF DCF, cross-checked with EV/EBITDA comps and a reverse-DCF on the current price
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Uber Technologies, Inc.
Uber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retailers, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics networks, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized businesses to global enterprises. Uber Technologies, Inc. has staetegic partnership with Mews to embed ride booking, real-time tracking and integrated billing directly into the Mews platform. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is UBER a buy?
As of 2026-07-30, Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $95.00 versus a current price of $71.20 — a 25% discount to fair value.
What is UBER's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) is $95.00, versus a current market price of $71.20.
Is UBER overvalued or undervalued?
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 25% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $95.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.