What is Intel Corporation (INTC) worth?

Intel at $101.63 (as of 2026-07-15; ~$511B market cap, ~$541B EV) is priced as if its foundry-plus-AI transformation has already largely succeeded. The reality in the filings is a business still in the fog of a turnaround: FY25 revenue of $52.9B (down from $63B in 2022), operating income of roughly breakeven-to-negative, negative free cash flow (-$4.9B FY25, -$8.3B trailing), and reported profits dominated by restructuring charges, asset write-offs, divestiture gains and equity-investment mark-to-market swings. Yet the stock trades at ~9.5x forward EV/revenue and ~34x normalized EV/EBITDA — multiples usually reserved for TSMC and Nvidia.

Our probability-weighted SOTP values Intel at ~$28/share and our scenario-weighted expected value at ~$35; we anchor Fair Value at ~$32. That implies today's price sits at roughly 3x intrinsic value. This is a legitimate, explainable gap for a story stock: the market is capitalizing the bull case (Intel Foundry as a credible Western #2 to TSMC, plus a revitalized x86 franchise via the NVIDIA partnership and AI-PC refresh) as if it were near-certain. We think that outcome is possible but a minority probability. We view INTC as substantially overvalued at current levels, while acknowledging a wide outcome distribution — hence low confidence in any single point.

Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (CCG + DCAI products, Foundry optionality, Mobileye/stakes, net debt) cross-checked with reverse-DCF and implied-multiple work

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.