Read
Priced above base case
What is Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) worth?
Currently $175.85 — above the base case ($159.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $44.0B
As of 2026-07-15, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $174.00 versus a current price of $175.85 — a 1% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Coinbase (COIN) at $166.94 (price as of 2026-07-15) carries a ~$44.0B market cap / ~$40.5B EV. It is the leading U.S. crypto platform, but for valuation purposes it behaves as a high-beta (3.35) cyclical whose fortunes track crypto prices and trading volumes, wrapped around a genuine platform with optionality in stablecoins (USDC), derivatives, prediction markets and the Base L2/onchain ecosystem.
Reported earnings are close to unusable at face value: quarterly net income swung from +$1.43B (Q2 2025) to -$667M (Q4 2025) to -$394M (Q1 2026), driven overwhelmingly by non-cash mark-to-market gains/losses on crypto held for investment (a +$1.86B gain in Q2 2025, a -$1.14B loss in Q4 2025). Stripping those out, normalized net income over the last four reported quarters was only ~$0.55B and normalized EBITDA ~$1.0B — i.e., the underlying tape has been soft (revenue -31% YoY).
On probability-weighted mid-cycle normalized earnings I get a fair value of ~$174/share, essentially in line with the market. COIN is roughly fairly valued: the price already discounts a base-to-mildly-bullish crypto cycle (implied ~22% five-year FCF growth). This is a bet on the crypto cycle with defined odds, not a clear discount or premium — the honest read is a wide distribution ($65 bear to $332 bull) centered near today's price.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios on mid-cycle normalized earnings (P/E), cross-checked with reverse-DCF and EV/revenue
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Coinbase Global, Inc.
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It provides the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions; and a suite of products granting access to build onchain for developers. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
Frequently asked questions
Is COIN a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $174.00 versus a current price of $175.85 — a 1% premium to fair value.
What is COIN's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is $174.00, versus a current market price of $175.85.
Is COIN overvalued or undervalued?
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 1% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $174.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.