What is Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) worth?

Currently $29.27 — in line with the base case ($30.00) · ● live

Fair-value range vs. market price · High-growth

Market $29.27

Bear · 30%$13.00

Base · 45%$30.00

Bull · 25%$58.00

High-growth low confidence in the point estimate — for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number

● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $3.0B

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As of 2026-07-15, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $31.00 versus a current price of $29.27 — a 6% discount to fair value.

Executive summary

Upstart is the leading AI-based consumer lending marketplace (personal, auto, HELOC), earning fees from bank/credit-union partners and institutional investors rather than holding most credit risk. After a brutal 2022-2024 down-cycle, the business has re-accelerated: TTM revenue ~$1.12B (+44% YoY) and FY2025 returned to GAAP profit ($53.6M net income) — though Q1'26 slipped back to a small loss (-$6.6M), underscoring how thin and cyclical the margin still is.

We classify UPST as hypergrowth: fast top-line, thin/volatile profit, valuation driven by the recovery narrative rather than current cash flow. At $31.74 the market values it at ~$3.5B EV, or only ~2.5x forward revenue and an implied ~34% five-year FCF growth — reasonable given the growth rate, not aggressive. Our scenario-weighted fair value is ~$31, essentially in line with the price. The stock is a fairly-priced, high-beta call option on the credit cycle and Upstart's AI-model advantage; the reward is real in the bull case (~$58) but so is the downside (~$13) if credit or funding turns.

How we value it

Probability-weighted scenarios (forward P/E on normalized EPS) cross-checked with reverse-DCF and EV/revenue

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.

Investment thesis

The bull case rests on three things: (1) the AI underwriting flywheel — 2,500+ variables, ~104M repayment events, 91% of loans fully automated — genuinely separates risk better than FICO-based systems and improves with scale; (2) an asset-light, fee-based model that can throw off cash and high incremental margins as volume recovers; and (3) optionality in auto, HELOC, small-dollar, and a pending national bank…

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About Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

Frequently asked questions

Is UPST a buy?

As of 2026-07-15, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $31.00 versus a current price of $29.27 — a 6% discount to fair value.

What is UPST's fair value?

Dolphy's estimated fair value for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is $31.00, versus a current market price of $29.27.

Is UPST overvalued or undervalued?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 6% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $31.00.

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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.