Verdict
Fairly valued
Home · PGR
What is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) worth?
Currently $212.38 — 8% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Financial
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-30 17:49 · Market cap $123.8B
As of 2026-07-30, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $230.00 versus a current price of $212.38 — a 8% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Progressive is the best-run scaled personal-auto insurer in the US, and the numbers show it: ~35% trailing ROE, 9% year-over-year policies-in-force growth, and a first-quarter 2026 companywide underwriting margin of 13.6% — more than triple its 4% target. The market pays ~11x trailing earnings and ~3.6–3.9x book, which looks cheap for that quality. The catch is that current earnings are a cyclical peak: the hard-market repricing of 2023–2025 that tripled net income (from $3.9B to $11.3B) is fading, the company is now cutting auto rates, competition is intensifying, and tariffs threaten loss costs. Normalized earnings are below the peak, which is why forward EPS estimates decline.
Valued as a financial — normalized P/E and justified price-to-book — fair value is ~$230. The stock trades at a modest discount to that, so it screens as slightly undervalued rather than a bargain. The core bet is that Progressive's structural underwriting and data advantage lets it keep compounding policies and float even as margins normalize toward a still-healthy mid-cycle level.
How we value it
P/B–ROTE + normalized P/E (earnings DCF as cross-check)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
Frequently asked questions
Is PGR a buy?
As of 2026-07-30, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $230.00 versus a current price of $212.38 — a 8% discount to fair value.
What is PGR's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is $230.00, versus a current market price of $212.38.
Is PGR overvalued or undervalued?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 8% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $230.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.