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Priced above base case
What is Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) worth?
Currently $106.36 — above the base case ($72.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $103.9B
As of 2026-07-15, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $72.00 versus a current price of $106.36 — a 48% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Robinhood (HOOD) — Fair value ~$72 vs. ~$115 price; the stock trades at a meaningful premium to a defensible intrinsic value. Robinhood has executed impressively: 2025 revenue grew ~51% to $4.47B, the company swung to ~$1.9B net income, and margins are enviable (92% gross, ~38% operating). But the valuation now discounts near-flawless, sustained growth. A reverse DCF shows the current price requires ~42% cash-earnings growth for five years. My base case — a still-strong ~20% compounder — supports ~$65; only the bull case (~32% growth, optionality paying off) gets near the price. Weighting bear/base/bull (25/45/30) yields ~$72.
This is a platform-optionality name, so the point estimate carries low confidence and the range is wide ($29 bear to ~$108 bull). The debate is not whether Robinhood is a good business — it clearly is — but whether ~40% compounding is the right base case. Q1'26 revenue grew only ~15% YoY and declined sequentially, underlining how crypto- and rate-sensitive the model is. At ~56x trailing / ~37x forward earnings, we'd want a pullback toward the $60s–$70s before the risk/reward turns attractive. Data as of 2026-07-15.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenario DCF + reverse-DCF / multiple cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States. The company's platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and American depository receipts. It offers fractional trading, recurring investments, access to investing on margin, fully-paid securities lending, cash sweep, instant withdrawals, retirement program, around-the-clock trading, joint investing accounts, event contracts, future contract services, and short selling. The company also provides various learning and education solutions comprise Snacks, an accessible digest of business news stories for a new generation of investors; Learn, which is an online collection of guides, feature tutorials, and financial dictionary; Newsfeeds that offer access to free, premium news from sites from various sites, such as Barron's, Reuters, and Dow Jones. In addition, the company offers In-App Education, a resource that covers investing fundamentals, including why people invest, a stock market overview, and tips on how to define investing goals, as well as allows customers to understand the basics of investing before their first trade; and Crypto Learn and Earn, an educational module available to various crypto customers through Robinhood Learn to teach customers the basics related to cryptocurrency. Further, it provides Robinhood credit cards, cash card and spending accounts, and wallets. Robinhood Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is HOOD a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $72.00 versus a current price of $106.36 — a 48% premium to fair value.
What is HOOD's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is $72.00, versus a current market price of $106.36.
Is HOOD overvalued or undervalued?
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 48% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $72.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.