What is IREN Limited (IREN) worth?

IREN Limited (formerly Iris Energy) is an Australia-based, vertically integrated data-center operator transitioning from Bitcoin mining into AI cloud and colocation — a classic 'neocloud' optionality story. At $39.97 (market cap ~$14.3B, EV ~$16.0B) the stock trades at ~21x trailing revenue and ~9x my FY27E revenue of $1.8B. Reported net income is meaningless — dominated by mark-to-market swings on investments (+$654M in the Sep-25 quarter), impairments and write-offs — while normalized EBITDA is only ~$195M TTM and the company is burning cash on a ~$2.6B (9-month) capex program funded by heavy equity and convertible issuance.

The entire investment case rests on whether IREN can convert its secured multi-GW power pipeline into profitable AI infrastructure revenue. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$30/share, roughly 25% below the current price. That is not a high-conviction 'short' — the range is enormous ($5 bear to $63 bull) — but the market is already paying for successful execution, leaving little margin of safety. I rate the shares modestly overvalued versus intrinsic value, with the caveat that a single large hyperscaler colocation contract could quickly rewrite the math.

Probability-weighted scenarios (EV/revenue on forward estimates) cross-checked with neocloud comps and implied-multiple reverse check

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.