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What is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) worth?

Currently $78.25 — 13% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live

Fair-value range vs. market price · Steady operator
Market $78.25
Bear · 25%$62.00
Base · 50%$92.00
Bull · 25%$120.00
Verdict
Undervalued
Fair value
$90.00
Current price
$78.25
discount
13.1%
Steady operator medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $309.6B
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As of 2026-07-15, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $90.00 versus a current price of $78.25 — a 13% discount to fair value.

Executive summary

Conclusion: Relative to intrinsic value, NFLX is cheap and modestly undervalued. We estimate fair value at approximately $90 per share.

Netflix is the global streaming leader, and its fundamentals continue to strengthen: Q1 2026 revenue of $12.25 billion (+16% reported, +14% constant currency), operating margin improved to 32.3%, and all four regions posted double-digit growth (UCAN +14%, EMEA +17%, LATAM +19%, APAC +20%). One important caveat: Q1 net income of $5.28 billion includes a $2.8 billion WBD termination fee (non-operating, one-time). Excluding this, normalized quarterly net income was roughly $3.0 billion—real earnings power remains strong but not as dramatic as the headline suggests.

Valuation presents a methodological tension: a 5-year DCF using an 8.5%–9% WACC yields about $61–67, while the forward P/E of just 19x is clearly inexpensive for a company growing earnings ~20% per year, and comparables point to ~$107. The DCF undervalues this kind of compounding company with a long growth runway and still-expanding margins because it only models five years and assumes perpetual growth of just 2.5%. We blend bear/base/bull scenarios to arrive at about $90.

This is a growth-stock bet with favorable odds, not a certainty: upside depends on advertising and live monetization materializing; downside risks are discount-rate sensitivity from the high beta and a potential rebound in content costs.

How we value it

DCF + P/E comparables (supplemented with scenario-weighting)

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.

Investment thesis

Core thesis: Netflix has transitioned from a 'growth-at-all-costs' phase to one of growth plus margin expansion plus free cash flow generation, and the market's forward 19x P/E does not fully price in this shift.

About Netflix, Inc.

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Frequently asked questions

Is NFLX a buy?

As of 2026-07-15, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $90.00 versus a current price of $78.25 — a 13% discount to fair value.

What is NFLX's fair value?

Dolphy's estimated fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $90.00, versus a current market price of $78.25.

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 13% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $90.00.

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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.