Verdict
Undervalued
What is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) worth?
Currently $68.67 — 24% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $309.6B
As of 2026-07-15, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $90.00 versus a current price of $68.67 — a 24% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Conclusion: At $73.53 (2026-07-15), NFLX appears moderately undervalued relative to intrinsic value. We assign a fair value of ~$90 per share, implying a ~22% discount to the current price.
Netflix is the global streaming leader, with fundamentals continuing to strengthen: Q1 2026 revenue of $12.25 billion (+16% YoY, +14% constant currency), operating margin rising to 32.3%, double-digit growth across all four regions (UCAN +14%, EMEA +17%, LATAM +19%, APAC +20%). Notably, Q1 net income of $5.28 billion includes a one-time $2.8 billion termination fee from the WBD deal (non-operating, non-recurring); excluding this, normalized quarterly net income is ~$3.0 billion—true profitability remains strong but not as spectacular as the headline figure.
On valuation, there is methodological tension: a 5-year DCF with an 8.5%-9% WACC yields ~$61-67 per share, while the forward P/E of 19x is clearly not expensive for a company with ~20% annual earnings growth. The comparable approach points to ~$107. The DCF, with a terminal growth of only 2.5% and a 5-year horizon, systematically undervalues compounders with long growth runways and expanding margins. Our three-scenario weighting (bear/base/bull) lands at ~$90.
This is a favorable growth-stock bet, not a sure arbitrage: upside depends on advertising and live-stream monetization; downside risks include discount rate sensitivity (high beta) and potential content cost resurgence.
How we value it
DCF + P/E Comparable (with scenario weighting)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Netflix, Inc.
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is NFLX a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $90.00 versus a current price of $68.67 — a 24% discount to fair value.
What is NFLX's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is $90.00, versus a current market price of $68.67.
Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 24% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $90.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.