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Priced above base case
What is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) worth?
Currently $544.43 — above the base case ($440.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $866.9B
As of 2026-07-15, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $450.00 versus a current price of $544.43 — a 21% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
AMD trades at ~$531.63 (15 Jul 2026), a ~$867B market cap, on a story the income statement hasn't yet delivered. The business is genuinely inflecting — Q1 FY2026 revenue of $10.25B rose 38% YoY, Data Center revenue jumped 57% to $5.8B on 5th-gen EPYC and Instinct MI350, and gross margin expanded to 53%. Landmark 6-gigawatt supply agreements with OpenAI and Meta (plus the MI450/Helios roadmap) give AMD a credible claim to be the durable #2 in AI accelerators.
The problem is price, not the company. At today's level the market embeds ~14x EV/revenue on my FY2027E ~$62B, ~48x EV/EBITDA, and a reverse-DCF that needs ~61% annual FCF growth for five years. That is the bull case priced as the base case. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$450, roughly 15% below the current price — a modest premium to intrinsic value, not a broken valuation. Given the width of the outcome distribution ($250 bear to $720 bull), confidence in any single point is low; the honest read is that AMD is a high-quality asset priced for flawless AI execution.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios (forward P/E + DCF), cross-checked with reverse-DCF and implied EV/revenue
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company internationally. It operates in three segments: Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded. The company offers artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, microprocessors, and graphics processing units (GPUs) as standalone devices or as incorporated into accelerated processing units, chipsets, and data center and professional GPUs; and embedded processors and semi-custom system-on-chip (SoC) products, microprocessor and SoC development services and technology, data processing units, field programmable gate arrays (FPGA), system on modules, AI network interface cards, and adaptive SoC products. It provides processors under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen AI, AMD Ryzen PRO, AMD Ryzen Threadripper, AMD Ryzen Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, and AMD PRO A-Series brands; graphics under the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon graphics; professional graphics under the AMD Radeon Pro graphics brand; and AI and general-purpose compute infrastructure for hyperscale providers. The company offers data center graphics under the AMD Instinct accelerators and Radeon PRO V-series brands; server microprocessors under the AMD EPYC brand; low power solutions under the AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, and AMD R-Series and G-Series brands; FPGA products under the Virtex-6, Virtex-7, Virtex UltraScale+, Kintex-7, Kintex UltraScale, Kintex UltraScale+, Artix-7, Artix UltraScale+, Spartan-6, and Spartan-7 brands; adaptive SOCs under the Zynq-7000, Zynq UltraScale+ MPSoC, Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoCs, Versal HBM, Versal Premium, Versal Prime, Versal AI Core, Versal AI Edge, Vitis, and Vivado brands; and compute and network acceleration board products under the Alveo and Pensando brands. It serves original equipment and design manufacturers, public cloud service providers, system integrators, distributors, and add-in-board manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is AMD a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $450.00 versus a current price of $544.43 — a 21% premium to fair value.
What is AMD's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is $450.00, versus a current market price of $544.43.
Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 21% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $450.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.