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Priced near base case
What is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) worth?
Currently $63.34 — in line with the base case ($62.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $26.7B
As of 2026-07-15, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $68.00 versus a current price of $63.34 — a 7% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the only operator globally building a space-based cellular broadband (Direct-to-Device, D2C) network for unmodified standard smartphones, headquartered in Midland, Texas. The company is still pre-commercialization in constellation deployment: FY2025 revenue was only $70.9M and highly volatile (Q4'25 $54.3M, Q1'26 plunged to $14.7M), FY2025 net loss $341.9M, capex ~$1.06B, free cash flow ~-$1.19B. As of 2026-03-31, cash ~$3.03B (including restricted cash ~$3.46B), debt ~$2.99B, essentially net cash, but at the current burn rate it supports only a limited time; subsequent financing/dilution is nearly certain.
Current price $68.82 (2026-07-15), corresponding to a market cap of ~$26.7B (on ~388M total economic shares, inclusive of Class C/LLC minority interests). This is a classic platform option/story stock: value lies not in current cash flows (negative, reverse DCF unsolvable) but in whether the constellation deploys successfully and converts coverage of 50+ MNOs and ~3 billion potential users into revenue share income.
After probability-weighting three scenarios, I derive a fair value midpoint of ~$68/share — virtually equal to the current price. Conclusion: under a very wide outcome distribution, ASTS is roughly fairly priced, not clearly cheap or expensive. It is more akin to a bet with clear odds (Bear ~$20 / Base ~$62 / Bull ~$145) than a unidirectional opportunity. Confidence is low; the position should be viewed through scenarios and implied expectations, not a single price target.
How we value it
Scenario-weighted valuation (probability-weighted EV) + Reverse valuation / implied multiple cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States. The company provides a cellular broadband network in space to be accessible directly by smartphones for commercial use and other applications, as well as for government use. Its SpaceMobile service provides cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is ASTS a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $68.00 versus a current price of $63.34 — a 7% discount to fair value.
What is ASTS's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is $68.00, versus a current market price of $63.34.
Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 7% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $68.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.