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Priced near base case
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What is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) worth?
Currently $62.31 — in line with the base case ($62.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-09-04 23:05 · Market cap $26.7B
As of 2026-07-15, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $68.00 versus a current price of $62.31 — a 8% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
AST SpaceMobile(ASTS) is the only company in the world building a space-based cellular broadband network (direct-to-device, D2C) for unmodified, ordinary smartphones, headquartered in Midland, Texas. The company remains in the pre-deployment and pre-commercialization phase: FY2025 revenue was just $70.9M and highly volatile (Q4'25 $54.3M, plunging to $14.7M in Q1'26), FY2025 net loss $341.9M, capex ~$1.06B, and free cash flow ~-$1.19B. As of March 31, 2026, cash stood at ~$3.03B (~$3.46B including restricted cash), debt ~$2.99B, leaving the company essentially net cash, but at current burn rates that liquidity lasts only a limited time, making subsequent financing/dilution almost inevitable.
As of July 15, 2026, the market cap is ~$26.7B (based on ~388 million total economic shares, including Class C/LLC minority interests). This is a quintessential platform-option/story stock: value lies not in current cash flows (which are negative and yield nothing in a reverse DCF), but in whether the constellation can be successfully deployed and convert coverage of 50+ MNOs and roughly 3 billion potential subscribers into revenue-sharing income.
Via a probability-weighted three-scenario analysis, I derive a fair value midpoint of approximately $68/share—nearly identical to the current price. The conclusion: across an extremely wide distribution of outcomes, ASTS is roughly fairly priced, not obviously cheap or expensive. It is more a bet with a clearly defined payoff profile (bear ~$20 / base ~$62 / bull ~$145) than a one-sided opportunity. Confidence level is low; the stock should be viewed through scenarios and implied expectations, not a single target price.
How we value it
Scenario-weighted valuation (probability-weighted EV) + reverse valuation/implied multiples cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States. The company provides a cellular broadband network in space to be accessible directly by smartphones for commercial use and other applications, as well as for government use. Its SpaceMobile service provides cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is ASTS a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $68.00 versus a current price of $62.31 — a 8% discount to fair value.
What is ASTS's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is $68.00, versus a current market price of $62.31.
Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 8% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $68.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.