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Priced above base case
What is Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) worth?
Currently $386.50 — above the base case ($260.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $1.9T
As of 2026-07-15, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $278.00 versus a current price of $386.50 — a 39% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Broadcom (AVGO), $394.14 (15 Jul 2026) — Overvalued vs intrinsic value; fair value ~$278. Broadcom is one of the highest-quality franchises in technology: ~76% gross margins, ~49% operating margins, $27B FY25 free cash flow accelerating to a ~$41B run-rate, and a two-engine model of custom AI silicon/networking plus VMware-anchored infrastructure software. H1 FY26 revenue rose ~39% to $41.5B and the 6 Jul 2026 Apple 8-K (custom ASIC supply through 2031) underscores a deep, sticky custom-silicon pipeline. None of that is in dispute. The issue is price. At $394 the market discounts ~34% free-cash-flow CAGR for five years — ~38x this year's EBITDA. My scenario-weighted DCF centers at ~$278; even a generous 28%-growth bull case only reaches ~$400. This is a great company priced for a near-flawless AI decade. I'd treat it as expensive here and wait for a better entry, while respecting that the bull tail is real.
How we value it
Scenario-weighted two-stage FCF DCF, cross-checked with reverse-DCF and implied EV/EBITDA
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Broadcom Inc.
Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies various semiconductor devices and infrastructure software solutions internationally. The company operates in two segments: Semiconductor Solutions and Infrastructure Software. The company offers networking connectivity, such as custom silicon solutions, ethernet switching & routing, ethernet NIC controllers, physical layer devices, and fiber optic components; wireless device connectivity, including RF semiconductor devices, connectivity solutions, custom touch controllers, and inductive charging ASICS; servers and storage system solutions, such as PCIE switches, SAS & raid products, fibre channel products, and HDD & SSD solutions; broadband solutions, includes set-top box, and broadband access; and industrial. The company also offers a private cloud software portfolio, including the VMware Cloud Foundation, Edge, vSphere foundation, telco cloud platform, private AI, live recovery, application networking and security, application development and data services; mainframe software, such as AIOPS & automation, database & data management, DEVX & DEVOPS, cybersecurity & compliance management, beyond code programs, foundational & open mainframe solutions; cybersecurity, such as endpoint, network, information, application security, and identity & access management; enterprise software; and fc san management. Its products are used in various applications in enterprise and data center networking, including artificial intelligence networking and connectivity, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, wireless device and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, factory automation, power generation and alternative energy systems, and electronic displays. Broadcom Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is AVGO a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $278.00 versus a current price of $386.50 — a 39% premium to fair value.
What is AVGO's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) is $278.00, versus a current market price of $386.50.
Is AVGO overvalued or undervalued?
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 39% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $278.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.