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Priced above base case
What is AXT, Inc. (AXTI) worth?
Currently $56.51 — above the base case ($17.00) · ● live
High-growth
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $3.5B
As of 2026-07-15, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $19.00 versus a current price of $56.51 — a 197% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
AXT is a small compound-semiconductor substrate maker (indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, germanium) plus a captive raw-materials group, manufacturing chiefly through its majority-owned Chinese subsidiary Tongmei. The bull narrative is real in kind if not yet in scale: InP is a genuine enabler of high-speed optical data transmission, and AI data centers are driving interest in InP-based lasers/detectors. Q1 2026 revenue of $26.9M was up 39% YoY and gross margin recovered to ~30%, and the near-breakeven quarter is encouraging.
But the numbers do not remotely support the price. FY2025 revenue was $88.3M — below 2024's $99.4M and 2022's $141M — with a 12.7% gross margin, a $22M operating loss and negative free cash flow. The company has raised equity, is diluting shareholders, and just withdrew Tongmei's long-pending Shanghai STAR IPO to pivot toward a Hong Kong listing. Against $88M of sales the market assigns a ~$3.5B enterprise value: ~40x trailing revenue. Our scenario work puts fair value near $19; the market is paying roughly 3x that for optionality on a still-unproven, China-exposed InP ramp.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios on forward EV/revenue (growth-multiple), with reverse implied-multiple check; DCF inapplicable (negative FCF)
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About AXT, Inc.
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. The company provides indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, high-speed data transfer in data centers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, consumer devices, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, thermo-photovoltaics, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also offers semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LEDs, screen displays using micro-LEDs, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, laser machining, cutting and drilling, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers. In addition, the company provides germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it offers 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. It sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is AXTI a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $19.00 versus a current price of $56.51 — a 197% premium to fair value.
What is AXTI's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is $19.00, versus a current market price of $56.51.
Is AXTI overvalued or undervalued?
AXT, Inc. (AXTI) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 197% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $19.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.