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Priced above base case
What is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) worth?
Currently $223.87 — above the base case ($158.00) · ● live
High-growth
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $42.5B
As of 2026-07-15, Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $193.00 versus a current price of $223.87 — a 16% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Credo (CRDO) is one of the purest listed plays on AI data-center connectivity — active electrical cables (AECs), ZeroFlap optical transceivers, PCIe/Ethernet retimers and SerDes IP, all built on its own SerDes/DSP portfolio. The numbers are spectacular: FY26 (ended May 2026) revenue of $1.335bn, up 206% YoY, 68% gross margin, 36% operating margin, $472m net income and net cash of ~$1.14bn. The Q4 exit run-rate (~$1.75bn annualised) shows the ramp is still accelerating.
The question is not whether the business is excellent — it is — but what you pay for it. At $227.75 the ~$42.5bn market cap already discounts roughly 66% annual FCF growth for five years, or ~18x EV on FY27E revenue. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$193, a modest ~15% premium in the price. I'd call CRDO a great company at a full-to-rich price: own the story, but respect that the market is paying for near-flawless execution, and a 3.2 beta means the ride will be violent.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenario DCF, cross-checked with reverse-DCF and implied EV/revenue
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd provides various high-speed connectivity solutions for optical and electrical Ethernet and PCIe applications in the United States, Taiwan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and other international markets. The company offers ZeroFlap (ZF) active electrical cables and ZF optical transceivers, OmniConnect memory solutions, and a suite of retimers and DSPs for optical and copper Ethernet and PCIe, as well as integrated circuits, active electrical cables, and SerDes chiplets. It also provides intellectual property (IP) solutions, including SerDes IP licensing. The company offers was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
Frequently asked questions
Is CRDO a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $193.00 versus a current price of $223.87 — a 16% premium to fair value.
What is CRDO's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is $193.00, versus a current market price of $223.87.
Is CRDO overvalued or undervalued?
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 16% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $193.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.