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Priced above base case
What is IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) worth?
Currently $35.51 — above the base case ($16.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $14.0B
As of 2026-07-15, IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $20.00 versus a current price of $35.51 — a 78% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
IonQ trades at a large premium to any disciplined estimate of intrinsic value — it is priced for the bull case as if it were the base case. The stock is $37.51 (≈$14.0B market cap, ~$12.7B EV) against FY25 revenue of just $130M and a Q1'26 operating loss of $271.5M. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$20/share, implying the market is paying roughly a ~45% premium to what the business is defensibly worth today. This is a genuine venture-style bet, not a mispriced compounder: at today's price the market is capitalizing ~42x my 2026E revenue and betting that trapped-ion quantum computing reaches broad commercial advantage with IonQ as a durable leader.
The scenario range is enormous — bear ~$7, base ~$16, bull ~$48 — so confidence in any single number is low by design. Two things a PM must internalize: (1) the recent 'profits' (Q4'25 and Q1'26 net income) are non-cash fair-value gains on warrants/investments, not operating earnings — the business loses money and burns ~$160M/quarter; and (2) the share count is up 53% year-over-year (243M → 373M) from ATM sales and stock-funded M&A, so per-share value is being continuously diluted even as the story advances. Own it only as a small, sized-for-loss position on the quantum optionality; the current price does not offer a margin of safety.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios on 2030E revenue × EV/revenue, discounted; reverse/implied-multiple checks
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About IonQ, Inc.
IonQ, Inc. develops quantum computing systems in the United States, Switzerland, and Internationally. It sells access to quantum computers of various qubit capacities. The company also makes access to its quantum computers through cloud platforms, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Braket, Microsoft's Azure Quantum, and Google's Cloud Marketplace, as well as through its cloud service. The company engages in quantum-safe communications and quantum detection systems. It provides contracts associated with the design, development, construction, and sale of specialized quantum computing hardware systems; maintenance and support services; and consulting services related to co-developing algorithms on quantum computing systems. The company has a collaboration agreement with University of Chicago. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in College Park, Maryland.
Frequently asked questions
Is IONQ a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $20.00 versus a current price of $35.51 — a 78% premium to fair value.
What is IONQ's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is $20.00, versus a current market price of $35.51.
Is IONQ overvalued or undervalued?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 78% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $20.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.