Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Strategy Inc (MSTR) worth?
Currently $101.95 — 9% discount to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Asset / NAV
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $35.4B
As of 2026-07-15, Strategy Inc (MSTR) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $112.00 versus a current price of $101.95 — a 9% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) is the world's largest corporate bitcoin holder — 843,775 BTC (cost basis $63.7bn) — bolted onto a small, roughly break-even enterprise-analytics software business. The reported financials are noise: quarterly net income swings from +$10.0bn to −$12.5bn purely on unrealized BTC mark-to-market under ASU 2023-08. Ignore EPS; value the balance sheet.
Mark the BTC to the last reported quarter-end price (~$68k), add cash and a modest software value, and subtract ~$8.2bn of convertible debt and a ~$13.8bn senior perpetual-preferred stack, and NAV to common is ~$110/share. The stock at $97.58 trades at ~0.92x book — essentially at NAV, with the historic mNAV premium gone. At this price the market is implicitly marking bitcoin around $63k, slightly below the last quarter-end mark.
This is now a leveraged, dilutive BTC proxy. Fair value is a wide distribution driven by the bitcoin price: ~$55 in a bear case (BTC ~$45k), ~$110 base (BTC ~$68k), ~$210 bull (BTC ~$120k plus a premium re-rating). Expected value ~$112. Confidence is deliberately low — your view on this stock is really your view on bitcoin.
How we value it
Mark-to-market NAV (sum-of-the-parts): BTC treasury + cash + software, net of debt and perpetual preferred; probability-weighted over BTC price scenarios
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Strategy Inc
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making. In addition, the company provides Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.
Frequently asked questions
Is MSTR a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Strategy Inc (MSTR) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $112.00 versus a current price of $101.95 — a 9% discount to fair value.
What is MSTR's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Strategy Inc (MSTR) is $112.00, versus a current market price of $101.95.
Is MSTR overvalued or undervalued?
Strategy Inc (MSTR) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 9% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $112.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.