Verdict
Overvalued
What is Nokia Oyj (NOK) worth?
Currently $10.63 — 52% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $61.4B
As of 2026-07-15, Nokia Oyj (NOK) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $7.00 versus a current price of $10.63 — a 52% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Nokia (NOK) at $11.00 (data as of 15 Jul 2026) trades at a clear premium to what its cash flows justify. This is a mature, net-cash, cash-generative communications-equipment company — revenue ~$19.9bn declining at a mid-single-digit CAGR over 2022-25, normalized FCF ~$1.4-2.0bn, and a valuable but lumpy high-margin licensing arm (Nokia Technologies). My blended fair value is $7.00, roughly 35% below the market price.
The market is paying ~69x trailing and ~22x forward earnings, and ~24x EV/EBITDA, for a business whose revenue grows ~2%. A reverse DCF shows the current price embeds ~25% annual FCF growth for five years — implausible absent a step-change from the Nvidia AI-RAN partnership and data-center networking. That optionality is genuine but unmonetized, so it belongs in the bull scenario, not the base case.
Verdict: expensive. I'd want a materially lower entry (high-single digits) to own the recovery-and-optionality thesis; the sell-side $15 mean target reflects, in my view, an over-extrapolation of the AI-networking narrative.
How we value it
DCF + peer comps (EV/EBITDA, forward P/E), cross-checked with reverse DCF
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Nokia Oyj
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Frequently asked questions
Is NOK a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Nokia Oyj (NOK) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $7.00 versus a current price of $10.63 — a 52% premium to fair value.
What is NOK's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Nokia Oyj (NOK) is $7.00, versus a current market price of $10.63.
Is NOK overvalued or undervalued?
Nokia Oyj (NOK) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 52% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $7.00.
Other companies covered
AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.