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Priced below base case
What is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) worth?
Currently $207.29 — below the base case ($220.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $5.1T
As of 2026-07-15, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $225.00 versus a current price of $207.29 — a 8% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
NVIDIA (NVDA) at $211.80 carries a $5.1T market cap and sits at the centre of the AI buildout. The numbers are staggering: FY2026 (ended Jan-2026) revenue $215.9B (+65% y/y) with $120.1B net income, and Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6B (+85% y/y), 74.9% gross margin and $53.5B operating income. Balance sheet is net cash (~$40B) and free cash flow is enormous (~$120B TTM, Q1 run-rate ~$190B annualized). The debate is not about quality — it is about durability and price. On forward earnings (16.5x P/E, ~13x EV/revenue on FY27E revenue) the stock is not stretched, and comps point to $300+. But a DCF that respects the eventual fade to a terminal rate values it nearer $160, and the reverse DCF shows the price already discounts ~25% FCF growth for five years. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$225 — roughly the current price. Verdict: fairly valued; own it for the platform and optionality, but don't mistake a strong company for a large margin of safety.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios (two-stage FCF DCF + forward P/E comps), cross-checked with reverse DCF and implied EV/revenue
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation has a strategic collaboration with Palantir Technologies Inc. to deliver an intelligent engine for running NVIDIA AI and Nemotron open models in sovereign environments. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is NVDA a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $225.00 versus a current price of $207.29 — a 8% discount to fair value.
What is NVDA's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is $225.00, versus a current market price of $207.29.
Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 8% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $225.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.