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Priced below base case
What is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) worth?
Currently $127.05 — below the base case ($175.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $380.7B
As of 2026-07-15, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $175.00 versus a current price of $127.05 — a 27% discount to fair value.
Executive summary
Oracle has fallen to $132.15 from the levels that made my July $185 fair value a modest discount — now a ~24% discount. The fundamentals in the FY2026 10-K are unchanged and, if anything, confirm the transition: revenue +20.6% to $67.4B, cloud now 51% of revenue (up from 37% two years ago), operating cash flow still robust at $32B. The scary headline numbers — $55.7B capex, −$23.7B free cash flow — are the signature of a front-loaded AI-infrastructure build, not a broken business.
The market's fear, freshly stoked by IBM's 25% earnings crash and 'AI spending tests profits' narratives, is that this capex won't earn its cost of capital. That fear is legitimate and is why I hold confidence low. But the price now embeds a strikingly pessimistic version of it: ~6x EV/FY27E revenue and ~12x forward EPS for a 20%+ grower. My probability-weighted fair value is ~$175 (bear $100 / base $175 / bull $245). I'd rather own this at a discount to a wide but favorably-skewed range than chase it — position sizing should respect the 1.71 beta and the leverage.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios anchored on a conservative two-stage DCF, cross-checked with forward P/E and EV/EBITDA comps and a reverse implied-multiple test
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that build, run and support enterprise information technology frameworks worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering includes various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, as well as AI, Internet-of-Things, machine learning, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support services, and consulting and advanced customer services. It markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation has a strategic alliance with Metron, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is ORCL a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) looks undervalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $175.00 versus a current price of $127.05 — a 27% discount to fair value.
What is ORCL's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is $175.00, versus a current market price of $127.05.
Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) currently looks undervalued — trading at a 27% discount to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $175.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.