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Priced above base case
What is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) worth?
Currently $132.66 — above the base case ($58.00) · ● live
High-growth
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $320.6B
As of 2026-07-15, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $72.00 versus a current price of $132.66 — a 84% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Palantir is one of the best-executing software businesses in the market — and one of the most expensive stocks in it. In Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended 2026-03-31) revenue grew ~85% YoY to $1.63B and accelerated ~16% sequentially, with GAAP operating margin of ~46% and quarterly FCF of ~$892M. FY2025 revenue was $4.48B (+56%), split 54% government / 46% commercial, and the company generated ~$2.1B of full-year FCF with essentially no debt and ~$7.8B net cash.
The issue is valuation. At $133.72 the market cap is ~$321B, or ~58x trailing revenue and ~33x our estimate of FY2027 revenue. A reverse DCF implies the price requires ~74% free-cash-flow growth every year for five years. That is a bar even Palantir is unlikely to clear on a sustained basis. Peers growing 30-50% trade around 20x forward revenue; applying that to Palantir's FY2026E revenue yields ~$58.
We classify PLTR as hypergrowth and value it on probability-weighted scenarios. Our expected fair value is ~$72, roughly 45% below the current price. We hold the business in high regard and the growth is real; the price simply already embeds the optimistic outcome.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios (DCF + growth comps) with reverse-DCF price check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Palantir Technologies Inc.
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It provides Palantir Gotham integrates with other platforms for defense offerings which enables users to see, understand, and act in the modern battlespace; operations centers to the tactical edge; integrating data from domains and sensors in near real-time; and situational awareness and accelerating operational decision-making, as well as facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that helps organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. The company also has a strategic partnership with Ondas Inc. to develop and deploy AI-enabled operational capabilities to scale stratospheric, aerial, and land-based ISR missions. The company has a strategic collaboration with NVIDIA to deliver an intelligent engine for running NVIDIA AI and Nemotron open models in sovereign environments. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Aventura, Florida.
Frequently asked questions
Is PLTR a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $72.00 versus a current price of $132.66 — a 84% premium to fair value.
What is PLTR's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is $72.00, versus a current market price of $132.66.
Is PLTR overvalued or undervalued?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 84% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $72.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.