Verdict
Fairly valued
What is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) worth?
Currently $173.50 — 2% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:13 · Market cap $188.0B
As of 2026-07-15, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $170.00 versus a current price of $173.50 — a 2% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
QUALCOMM is a high-return, cash-generative franchise: FY25 revenue $44.3B, operating income $12.4B (~28% margin), gross margin ~55%, ROE ~36%, and TTM free cash flow of ~$12.5B. The business splits into QCT (chips — handset-heavy but diversifying into automotive, IoT and, via the Alphawave deal, data center) and QTL (patent licensing — smaller but the highest-margin, most defensible piece).
Reported earnings are noisy: FY25 net income of $5.5B was crushed by a ~$6.1B tax valuation-allowance charge in Q4, and Q2 FY26 net income of $7.4B was flattered by a ~$5.7B CAMT-related release of that same allowance. Neither reflects the underlying ~$10.50 normalized EPS. On clean numbers the stock trades at ~17x normalized earnings and ~14x EV/EBITDA — reasonable, not cheap, for a business whose crown-jewel customer (Apple) is actively designing out its modem.
My fair value of ~$170 sits just below the $178 market price. I'd own this for the cash return and diversification optionality, but the valuation offers no margin of safety today.
How we value it
DCF (primary) cross-checked with peer P/E and EV/EBITDA comps
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products. The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices. The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments. It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses. Further, it provides security and intelligence services for unmanaged networks through software-based network security solutions. QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is QCOM a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $170.00 versus a current price of $173.50 — a 2% premium to fair value.
What is QCOM's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is $170.00, versus a current market price of $173.50.
Is QCOM overvalued or undervalued?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 2% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $170.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.