Verdict
Fairly valued
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) worth?
Currently $424.61 — 7% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $2.2T
As of 2026-07-15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $395.00 versus a current price of $424.61 — a 7% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
TSMC (TSM ADR, $420.58 as of 2026-07-15) — Fair value ~$395; roughly fairly valued, a dominant franchise fully priced. TSMC is the world's leading-edge foundry monopoly, manufacturing the advanced chips behind essentially all AI accelerators, high-end smartphones and HPC. Business momentum is extraordinary: June 2026 revenue rose +67.9% YoY and H1'26 revenue reached NT$2,404B (+35.6% YoY), with 45%+ net margins and 36% ROE. The debate is not quality — it's price. At $420 the ADR trades at ~25x my FY26E earnings (~21x the Street's more aggressive forward number), which fully capitalizes the AI supercycle. My blended fair value of ~$395 sits just below the market price: the stock is neither a bargain nor expensive, it's priced for continued strength. Note TSMC reports in TWD; I convert at ~29 TWD/USD and each ADR represents 5 ordinary shares.
How we value it
Earnings-power comps (forward P/E) primary; normalized FCF DCF as floor; scenario-weighted cross-check
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Frequently asked questions
Is TSM a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $395.00 versus a current price of $424.61 — a 7% premium to fair value.
What is TSM's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is $395.00, versus a current market price of $424.61.
Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 7% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $395.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.