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Priced above base case
What is TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) worth?
Currently $146.85 — above the base case ($82.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-07-21 21:28 · Market cap $15.0B
As of 2026-07-15, TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $82.00 versus a current price of $146.85 — a 79% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
TTM Technologies (TTMI) — Overvalued vs intrinsic value; fair value ~$82 against a $144.22 price (data as of 15 Jul 2026). TTMI is a genuinely improving business: revenue grew 30% YoY to $846M in Q1 FY26, driven by AI data-center PCBs (Data Center & Networking now 36% of sales, up from 28%) and a strong defense-electronics franchise (A&D 40%). Operating margin expanded to 8.6% and gross margin to 21.4%. The operational story is real.
The problem is price. At $144 the stock trades at ~36x trailing EV/EBITDA, ~78x trailing GAAP EPS, and ~3.9x EV/2027E revenue — multiples reserved for durable secular compounders, not capital-intensive PCB fabrication. A reverse-DCF shows the price embeds ~50% free-cash-flow CAGR for five years. My base DCF ($38), EV/EBITDA comps ($64), and probability-weighted scenarios (~$82) all land well below the market. Even a credible bull case (~$135) only matches today's price — meaning the upside is priced in and the downside is not. Free cash flow is roughly zero because capex is consuming all operating cash to fund the Syracuse (NY) and Penang (Malaysia) buildouts.
This is a good company at a demanding price. I'd want a meaningfully lower entry to own the AI/defense optionality.
How we value it
Probability-weighted scenarios anchored on DCF + EV/EBITDA comps, with reverse-DCF / implied-multiple checks on what the price already discounts
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About TTM Technologies, Inc.
TTM Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells mission systems, radio frequency (RF) components, RF microwave/microelectronic assemblies, and printed circuit boards (PCBs) and substrates in the United States, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in three segments, A&D, Commercial, and RF&S Components. The company offers various engineered systems and RF and microwave assemblies; PCBs and IC substrates, custom assemblies and integrated systems, passive and advanced ceramic RF components, hi-reliability multi-chip modules, and beamforming and switching networks; and design-for-manufacturability, PCB layout design, simulation and testing, quick turnaround (QTA) production, and specialized RF assembly and testing. It also provides multi-mode surveillance and weather avoidance radar systems for fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and shipboard platforms; AN/APS-153 multi-mode radar; communications suite within the MH-60R/S multi-mission helicopters; and supports maritime surveillance, counter UAS, and advanced air mobility end markets under MOSAIC brand. In addition, the company offers identification friend; monopulse secondary surveillance radars, and air traffic control systems; wired and wireless communication systems; designs, produces, and tests specialized multi-chip RF modules and components; and manufactures off-the-shelf surface mount microwave components. Further, it provides thick-film ceramic substrates, custom designed application specific integrated circuits, and conventional PCBs; custom electronic assemblies; QTA services; and thermal management. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services providers, original design manufacturers, distributors, and government agencies; and aerospace and defense, data center computing, automotive, medical, industrial, instrumentation, and networking markets. TTM Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is TTMI a buy?
As of 2026-07-15, TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $82.00 versus a current price of $146.85 — a 79% premium to fair value.
What is TTMI's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) is $82.00, versus a current market price of $146.85.
Is TTMI overvalued or undervalued?
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 79% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $82.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.